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The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and the substantial role of rare events in historical affairs.

The non-computability of the probability of consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).

The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.

The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, starting in 2001, to explain:

The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist, until they were discovered in Australia in 1697, and it then became reinterpreted to mean an unforeseen and consequential event. The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. Drag to the trash to delete.A black swan ( Cygnus atratus) in Australia "EDIT_TIP_MULTIPLE": "Select a layer to edit or move above or below another layer. "EDIT_TIP_SINGLE": "Select a layer and drag to the trash to delete", "FILE_LIMIT_SIZE": "This file exceeds maximum allowed size of 10 MB", I am aware that in case of culpable violation of the terms and conditions of sale, I must indemnify PopSockets against claims of third parties according to the clause 11 of the Terms and Conditions of Sale.Custom products cannot be returned for a refund, store credit, or replacement, unless defective.", PopSockets may reject non-contractual content and cancel orders.

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"TOOLTIP_ADD": "Tap to add photos, stickers, and text", "TOOLTIP_EDIT_DESIGN": "Edit your design", "TOOLTIP_EDIT_COLOR": "Tap + to change the color", "PLANT_BASED": "Made with plant-based materials", "SELECT_CASE": "MagSafe or Standard case?", "SELECT_PHONE": "Which iPhone do you have?",